It All Comes Down To This

Well, it's been nearly a month and now we only have one match left. Well, one match that matters at least. We also get a confrontation between two highly technical, possession oriented sides in Holland and Spain which will make for an excellent display of skill. Beware new found soccer fans, however, because skill operating in this fashion could make for a very tentative cat and mouse game. An early goal would do wonders for a match like this and really open up the play and turn up the pressure. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's give a quick look at the third place match first.


Uruguay vs Germany

I mean, it has to be Germany, right? The only times they were effectively shut down were when they were forced to play with ten men against a defensive minded team and when they played the best possession team in the world. Thomas Muller will be back and even if Miroslav Klose cannot play, Germany should be the favorites to win this match. Their attacking style is so fun to watch and they can break down defenses like it is nothing. Bastian Sweinsteiger has been an unsung hero during this tournament because everyone loves to focus on the pace of Muller, the finishing of Klose, or the creativity of Mesut Ozil. Sweinsteiger has been the anchor, though, the man through which all play flows and the key distributor to all of the talented attacking players. Perhaps the only player more important as an individual for the Germans has been keeper Manuel Neuer, who looked strong all tournament and hasn't given up a bad goal that I can recall. The German defense has been strong, don't get me wrong, but Neuer has been there to clean up any messes that are made and is a strong candidate to make the starting eleven on the all tournament squad.

With all of that said, hasn't Uruguay been flying under the radar this entire tournament and didn't they still make the semifinals? Yes, their quarterfinal victory was made possible by an intentional swat of a sure goal by Luis Suarez, but they paid for his absence in their semifinal loss when the only player that seemed to have an attacking bone in his body was the brilliant Diego Forlan. For this match though, Suarez is back and Uruguay has its dynamic duo which has accounted for seven goals in this tournament. Germany is a fantastic attacking team, but Uruguay is no slouch on defense and can definitely stunt the attack enough to get Forlan and Suarez ranging forward. It is far from a certainty that the Germans can immediately break down the Uruguayan defense and if Uruguay can strike first, they have a chance to play solid defense and look for the counter where they can.

In the end, I don't see Germany losing this game. Germany isn't Spain when it comes to the tactical passing attack, but they can break down defenses with their wing play or their combinations through the middle, not to mention the creativity in their runs and the intelligence in their passes. Even if Uruguay does get up early, the Germans can break down their defense and get back in the game. Uruguay did prove that ability as well against Holland so Germany jumping on them early will not spell the end. But the German defense isn't so porous that they will give up multiple easy goals, so the German offense will have their chances as well. I see the Germans getting the first goal and then Uruguay pushing to equalize, which will open them up to German counters. So long as both teams show up for this game rather than mailing it in because they're not in the finals, we could see five to six goals and one of the most entertaining matches of the tournament. Here's hoping that's how it happens.


Holland vs Spain

Let's be honest though; as fun and exciting as the third place match might be, this is the one we care about. This is the one that truly matters and this is the one that will keep us on the edges of our seats, especially anyone who is strongly pulling for either side. Saying that any later round World Cup match has the potential for a classic is, well, kind of stupid. I may have used such phrasing before but I'm trying to stay away from it and for good reason. The key word here is potential and there's no guarantee that this match will live up to it. We could have a very passive, very cautious match where someone gets a goal late to win it or, god forbid, no one scores in regulation and we're forced into penalties. Now, for the record, I don't believe this will happen. Even though the styles of each squad seem like they could work together to create such a scenario, there is too much on the line for either team to be happy playing cautious the whole game or risking their victory on a penalty shootout. Each country has the chance to win the World Cup for the first time ever. Ever. For two countries that are constantly denigrated for their ability to choke when the pressure is really on, for two soccer giants that have little to nothing to prove their ability, there is no way a half-hearted attempt will ever be enough. We have demanded drama from this match and I fully believe we will get it.

Everyone knows the strength of the Spanish side: passing, passing, passing. Spain is the undisputed master of possession soccer that moves the ball around and keeps probing various areas of their opponent. Teams that play the Spanish do not get many offensive chances because it isn't surprising to see Spain in possession of the ball for sixty minutes out of a ninety minute match. With only a half an hour to attack, you better make the most of your chances. But before you think the Spaniards are all passing and technique, they can take away your chances as well with center backs Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol. These two were the stars of the match with Germany as they stopped numerous counter attacks before they started and cleared ball after ball out of the box. Let's also recall that for all of the Spanish passing magic, it was Puyol who scored that match's only goal, a header, off of the most fundamental of all soccer plays: a corner kick. And if anything happens to get through them, Iker Casillas is one of the best keepers of the world and he has gotten better and better as the tournament has gone on. Xavi and Andres Iniesta are maestros in the midfield and David Villa is an absolute sniper of a striker who is a threat to score whenever he touches the ball. But for all of their technical ability, never forget that Spain has a strong spine that runs all the way through their team, not just at the top.

So how can Holland hope to crack the Spanish in the limited amount of time that they will actually be given to do so? First, they can increase that time by passing well and not foolishly giving the ball away. Holland plays the possession game very well too and if they can win the ball through punishing tackles from holding midfielders Nigel De Jong and Mark Van Bommel, then they need to be able to hold on to the ball instead of foolishly giving it right back. Once they have the ball, Arjen Robben may be the key as he will be marked on the right side of the attack by Joan Capdevila, arguably the weakest spot for the Spaniards. That isn't to say that Capdevila is a poor player or a bad defender, but the quickness of Robben could prove a problem for the slower fullback. Wesley Sneijder is the main playmaker in the midfield and he will of course need to be big, but the attacker that needs to step up the most is Robin Van Persie. He has had an unspectacular, though not bad, World Cup but he will need to be better than that if Holland is to emerge victorious. He will need to hold onto the ball in his high position and not let Pique or Puyol dispossess him easily to start the Spanish attack. If Van Persie can occupy one or both of those defenders and play well on the ball, he will open up space for the other attackers and keep Spain from keying on the dangerous Sneijder. Finally, the Dutch will need to be strong on defense, though this should go without saying. If Spain gets on the board first and early, the Dutch will be in a very dangerous position. Holland needs to disrupt the passing attack wherever they can, but also deny that final ball that leads to the goal. Easier said than done, but it is the chance they have.

Despite how I have been arguing from a Spanish dominance point of view so far, I by no means consider this to be over before it starts. Holland is a very, very strong side and they can score from anywhere. I mean this both in terms of which player can score (Giovanni Van Bronckhorst) or where they can score from (...Giovanni Van Bronckhorst). I have seen too many commentators calling this one for Spain already and I think that is a foolish error. I would not be shocked if Holland wins this match, though it would go against who I pick. That pick is obviously Spain and the reason I think they will be victorious is their possession game. Holland is well organized and has some strong defenders, but they are not a defensive team and they have only been truly tested in the back by a strong attacking squad once, Brazil, and Brazil is much more a defensive team this year than they ever have been in the past. Besides Brazil, Holland has played Japan, Denmark, Cameroon, Slovakia, and Uruguay minus Suarez. Not exactly a bunch of offensive powerhouses. Even the Brazilian possession is not as dangerous and consistent as that of Spain's and I believe that will be the difference in this championship match. Spain controls for too long and gives up too few opportunities. If Spain goes up early, it will put tremendous pressure on Holland and it will become an exciting race to see what comes first: the equalizer or the two goal lead. This would be the best situation for anyone just looking to enjoy this match, but the kicker is that Spain is comfortable winning 1-0. They don't need to press and look for a goal to stay ahead of their competition and that is why they will win.

I will recap the third-place game on Saturday, so expect something from me then as well. Let's just cross our fingers and hope that both of these matches deliver on the massive promise that they have. Enjoy them everyone. I know I will.