Quarterfinal Predictions? Sure, Why Not?

Well, I went six for eight in the round of sixteen, but I got all the easy ones right and got the toss-ups wrong so I can do a lot better. Let's move on to the quarterfinals and see what we have.


Holland vs Brazil

This is one of those early round match-ups that could easily be the final game if the bracket had gone a different way. Both teams are soccer powerhouses, but Brazil can claim to have won five titles while the Dutch are seen as destined to lose in each tournament. Every World Cup is a new chance, but nothing comes easy when you have to go through Brazil. Holland's strength is their passing ability as they can easily keep possession, work the ball around, try different spots of the defense, and bring it back out if they don't seem to have an entry. At times, they can actually be too patient and then their attacks peter out into possession for the sake of possession and Dutch players lose their sense of urgency. Possession is all well and good, and it does keep the ball out of the hands of the talented Brazilians, but it needs to have purpose and the Dutch need to be willing to take some risks because Brazil is very disciplined defensively and will not give up easy passing lanes or shots. This is why Arjen Robben is so important to Holland. He will always look to attack and he will always look to create, much like David Villa with Spain. He needs to be willing to push the pace when the Dutch sit back too much, and he'll have very talented players to work with in Wesley Sneijder and Robin Van Persie, along with an absolute workhorse in Dirk Kuyt. But they still need to crack the Brazilian defense, which will be difficult.

Brazil's defense starts with center backs Lucio and Juan, who provide the backbone and the strength for the entire effort. Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo play in front of them as the hold midfielders and it is their discipline that allows Maicon and Michael Bastos to press up into the attack, which puts extra stress on the wings of their opponents. This defensive shape keeps attackers from getting too far into the offensive third and gives Brazil flexibility in how they go forward. Once up top, you have the trio of Robinho, Kaka, and most likely Dani Alves with Elano out, who can create on their own or feed Luis Fabiano. What this does, which is what Chile learned last Monday, is allow Brazil switch from offense to defense as if it was nothing. Any of the six attack minded players can lead a breakout and any of the stout defenders has enough touch on the ball to get the attack rolling. This is where Holland has to be extremely careful. Brazil will happily let them knock the ball around and control possession, but will keep them out of the truly dangerous areas. If Holland overlaps runs or has players take on defenders off the dribble, there needs to be cover for those who are forward and they can't let Brazil get too much time and space on the counter.

In the end, I think that Brazil is just too much for Holland. I mean, how do you beat a team that could defend for ninety minutes if they really wanted but would also be just as willing to attack, attack, attack? This is why Brazil is such a dangerous and this is why so many have them penciled in as champions already. Holland has shown an ability to possess and get off dangerous chances, but they haven't played a team as solid defensively as Brazil yet, and they most certainly haven't played a team who can counter as well. Holland's back line has also not been tested for extended periods of time due to their opposition and has still looked sloppy at times. I think that the quality of the Brazilian counters, or just the extended possessions on offense that Brazil is sure to have, will test the Dutch defense and find them lacking. Brazil moves on to the semifinals.


Ghana vs Uruguay

I've said it here before, I love how Ghana plays. I love how talented their wingers are, I love Asamoah Gyan's presence and patience up top, and I love their willingness to take on defenders and attack. They provide a lot of excitement and seem dangerous whenever they're on the ball. However, despite all of this threat, they have scored just four goals in four games, two of them on penalty kicks. We can talk all we like about how they have had their chances and it's only a matter of time, but if it keeps happening, it really is an issue. What doesn't help is that Kevin Prince-Boateng might not be one hundred percent after the injury he suffered in the match against the United States, which is especially problematic because he is the Ghanaian who is most willing to run at defenders in space and create space. Despite the chances that they've had, Ghana has had goal scoring difficulty so can they score against such a well disciplined defense as Uruguay?

Or perhaps the question should be, can Ghana score enough to keep up with one of the most talented pairings in the tournament, Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez? Forlan and Suarez have been absolutely on fire since their 0-0 draw against France and they have taken over every game they've played. Add in the support from Edinson Cavani and Alvaro Pereira and you have a team that put up three goals on South Africa and two goals on a disciplined and experienced South Korea squad. Forlan has not been taken out of a game yet and I don't see how Ghana will do it. Anthony Annan has proven to be a quality holding midfielder, but he is no Michael Essien. He is not the type of defender that can take a creative player on the other team out of the match with his marking and physicality. If Forlan gets time to create, then he will find Suarez, who will finish, and Ghana will be in big trouble.

I think the key to this game is how well Ghana can take advantage of their chances. Uruguay's defense is good, but it's far from unbeatable and Ghana's attack has shown that they can get looks at every defense, from Serbia to Germany to the United States. The problem is that they simply haven't finished enough of those chances. And when it comes to picking a game when one team is not obviously dominant, I'll go with the team that has proved it so far. Forlan and Suarez have been magic and I think they can do it again.


Argentina vs Germany

Here is the other battle of the quarterfinals that seems like it should be happening later on in the tournament. Regardless, we have a contest here of the two sides that, save Brazil, have been the most impressive of any at the World Cup and have produced chance after chance on offense. Argentina brings to the table the consensus best player in the world in Lionel Messi, but also several other talented attackers in Carlos Tevez and Gonzalo Higuain. Tevez has worked like a dog this entire tournament and has created chances out of nothing as well as won back balls that he had no right to in the first place. Higuain has not been magical, but to his credit he always seems to find an opening to get to so that Messi can get him the ball. The main worry for Argentina has to be that they have not seen a team as talented as Germany so far, both offensively and defensively. Argentine goalkeeper Sergio Romero has looked very dodgy at times and the inconsistent play of center back Martin Demichelis can't make fans feel any better. Can they stand up to a potent German attack?

Germany has looked nigh-unstoppable at times, which everyone making negative comments about them seems to forget. They bring up their 1-0 loss against Serbia but gloss over the fact that they played for more than sixty minutes with only ten men against a superb defensive team. They remind us all of how they only managed a 1-0 win over Ghana, but seem to forget that Germany got their lead and then could afford to sit back and do nothing because of Australia's lead over Serbia guaranteeing their qualification. This team has been dynamite on offense and has all the creativity and passing skill to break down good defenses, let alone average ones. Mesut Ozil has been a revelation in this tournament with his creative runs and excellent distribution, and Thomas Muller has been no slouch on the wing with his willingness to take on defenders and his service into the box. That's not even mentioning the proven goal scoring ability of Miroslav Klose or Lukas Podolski. I don't know that either Sebastian Schweinsteiger or Sami Khedira can mark and contain Messi, but then again I don't know if anyone can. The fact that they don't have one man who can contain the best player in the world should not be an indictment on their ability.

In the end, I think Germany takes this highly entertaining match. The offense for both teams is incredibly strong, though I have more faith in the midfield play of Germany than Argentina because of the play of Angel di Maria and Maxi Rodriguez. Neither have blown me away and I put more stock in Muller and Podolski due to their performance so far. It might very well come down to the defense and goalies, and here Germany has the advantage. Argentina gave Mexico far too many chances and Romero has looked shaky. On the other hand, Manuel Neuer has been fantastic and looks like a top keeper in this tournament. This should be a great match, but I see Germany moving on.


Paraguay vs Spain

If you thought Spain's last match was 85 minutes of attacking and minimal defense on counters, this match could push that even further. Paraguay is primarily a defensive team, one that can score of course, but a defensive team at heart that puts men behind the ball and wears down their opponents. The problem is, Spain has seen this already in a Portuguese team that has more on the ball skill, higher quality attacking players, and superior pace and decision making on the counter. They created numerous chances against Portugal's defense and were able to break it with almost a half an hour left in the game, then still proceeded to dominate the flow of play while Portugal needed a goal to stay in the tournament. Anything could happen, always and of course, but what reason do we truly have to think that Spain should lose this match?

Paraguay has been solid defensively, only allowing one goal in the entire tournament to the Italians. Justo Villar has been quality in goal and the defense can defend well on the ground or in the air. They also do an excellent job of pressing up high and disrupting their opponents far from goal. This can lead to turnovers and quick counters which helps Paraguay feed an offense that isn't going to posses 70/30 and keep their opponents on their heels the whole time. The problem is that their attack has been weak, only scoring three goals in four games, and never looking truly dangerous. Roque Santa Cruz is their big talent, but he has been very quiet thus far and he looks to be playing at less than he is capable. Lucas Barrios and Nelson Haedo Valdez have looked good at times, but do we expect them to embarrass Gerard Pique or Carlos Puyol? Paraguay can defend well, but can they shut down Spain as Portugal was unable to do? And can they score as well, because they can't realistically expect to win this game 0-0 in shootouts, can they?

Spain, much like Holland, is a passing first team that moves the ball around endlessly looking for a way to attack the defense. Holland has Robben to attack defenders and aggressively push the pace, Spain has David Villa for a similar purpose. The advantage I feel Spain holds in such a comparison, however, is that they also have other players who will look to attack. Andres Iniesta always looks to create around the box and despite his form not being what it normally is, Fernando Torres is a knowledgeable, creative striker that knows where to be and where to get to. And if Spain looks to be too content to knock the ball around and needs an injection of pace or creativity, they can bring Cesc Fabregas, Jesus Navas, or Fernando Llorente off of the bench. I can't possibly see Spain going scoreless through 120 minutes and unless Paraguay comes out pushing, which will open them up to counters, I don't see them conceding a goal to a team that is essentially a worse version of the team they beat in the round of sixteen.

My conclusion should be obvious, but I don't see Spain losing this match. If Paraguay plays more offensively, Spain should be able to pick them apart on the counter or catch their defenders out of position more on regular possession. If Paraguay pressures the ball up high, it's more likely that Spain will beat that pressure with quick passes and create space in the offensive third, leading to scores. If Paraguay puts nine to ten men behind the ball and dares Spain to score, Spain will have 120 minutes to pick apart a defense that is good, but not as good as the defense they beat last time after just over 60 minutes. Spain has too many answers and are too good of a side to go down in this match-up.


Well, there you have it, my brilliant picks for the quarterfinals. As always, you're more than welcome to come back after the games are over and mock my pregame analysis. Regardless of my skill at picking these matches, let's just hope that we are treated to entertaining soccer in each and every contest in order to keep pace with the rest of the tournament thus far (save perhaps for some of the first set of games). Enjoy, everyone.